Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico — Tropical Storm Rachel is strengthening along Mexico’s Pacific coast and could become a major hurricane by Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center, as tropical-storm-force winds and potentially dangerous rainfall affect portions of the coastline.
Rachel was moving northwest Tuesday evening, with the storm’s center located about 285 miles west-southwest of Lázaro Cárdenas and 265 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, according to the latest NHC update.
The storm had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving northwest at 12 mph as it tracked roughly parallel to Mexico’s southwestern coastline.
Rachel Could Strengthen Into a Major Hurricane
Rachel was approaching hurricane strength Tuesday, with conditions expected to allow additional strengthening.
The National Hurricane Center forecast the storm to become a hurricane late Tuesday and reach major hurricane strength by Thursday.
That would mean Rachel could reach at least Category 3 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater, if the forecast materializes.
Despite the projected strengthening, the current forecast track keeps the center offshore.
“On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico.”
That forecast could limit the potential for a direct hurricane landfall, but residents along the coast are still facing impacts from the storm’s broad wind field and heavy rainfall.
Tropical Storm Warnings Cover Part of the Coast
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, while a tropical storm watch extends from Playa Perula northward to Cabo Corrientes.
Those alerts indicate that tropical-storm conditions could affect portions of the Mexican coast as Rachel moves nearby.
Tropical-storm-force winds were extending outward up to 185 miles from the center of Rachel, meaning the storm’s effects were spreading well beyond its center.
Even with Rachel expected to remain offshore, the large wind field could produce periods of strong winds and rough conditions along exposed coastal areas.
Up to 12 Inches of Rain Could Fall
Rainfall is another major concern as Rachel moves along the Pacific coast. The storm is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain across coastal areas of Guerrero, Michoacán and Colima, with isolated locations potentially receiving up to 12 inches.
Such rainfall could lead to dangerous flooding, especially in areas where the heaviest rain falls over a short period.
Mountainous terrain along Mexico’s Pacific coast can also increase the risk of rapid runoff, potentially causing flooding in low-lying communities and dangerous conditions near rivers and streams.
Residents in areas covered by the tropical storm warning should continue monitoring official forecasts as Rachel’s track and intensity become clearer.
Storm Could Remain Offshore
Rachel’s projected path is an important part of the forecast.
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Rather than moving directly toward the Mexican coastline, the storm is expected to travel parallel to southwestern Mexico while remaining offshore. That track would keep the center of the storm away from a direct landfall, but it does not eliminate the possibility of significant impacts.
The storm’s large wind field and heavy rain bands could still reach coastal communities as Rachel strengthens. A small change in the storm’s track could also alter which areas experience the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall.
Mexico Coast Remains on Alert
Rachel’s rapid strengthening potential makes the coming days particularly important for communities along Mexico’s Pacific coast.
With 70-mph winds already being recorded and major hurricane strength possible by Thursday, forecasters will continue watching the storm closely.
The immediate concerns are tropical-storm conditions along the coast, heavy rainfall and localized flooding. The longer-term concern is whether Rachel strengthens as expected while maintaining its current offshore track.
For now, residents from Guerrero through Michoacán and Colima should remain alert to updated warnings and changing rainfall conditions as Rachel moves northwest.
Are you following Tropical Storm Rachel as it approaches hurricane strength? Share your thoughts in the comments and let us know if you’re watching the storm from Mexico or another affected area.
