Monsoon activity is ramping up across Arizona, with widespread thunderstorms expected Tuesday and Wednesday, July 15–16, 2025. According to the Arizona Weatherman, storm coverage will increase significantly—especially over northern Arizona on Wednesday—with risks of strong winds, hail, and localized flooding.
Tuesday, July 15: Storms Build Through the Afternoon
Monsoon storms are expected to develop early Tuesday afternoon in southeast Arizona and along the Mogollon Rim. The Rim will light up first after 12 p.m., followed by activity in Cochise County around 1 p.m., and continuing into Santa Cruz, Graham, and Eastern Pima Counties.
By early evening, Pinal County may also see storm activity. Thunderstorms are also expected in parts of Coconino, Yavapai, Gila, southern Apache, and Navajo Counties, where forecast models show moderate instability with CAPE values near 2,400, LIs around -6, and DCAPE around 1,200—factors that could support hail and severe wind gusts.
Forecast highlights for Tuesday include:
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Possible wind gusts up to 60 mph
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Marginal severe hail (up to 1 inch)
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Localized flooding
Likely impact zones: Tucson, Benson, Willcox, Sierra Vista, Nogales, and potentially Casa Grande in the evening.
Wednesday, July 16: Storm Coverage Expands North
On Wednesday, upper-level conditions will support stronger convection across northern Arizona, while southern Arizona continues to see storm activity beginning after noon in Santa Cruz County.
The area of thunderstorm activity will stretch north through Coconino, Apache, and Navajo Counties, including the Grand Canyon, with rain and storms likely. The Show Low area may experience localized flooding due to heavier rainfall.
Southern Arizona counties like Cochise, Graham, and Eastern Pima will continue to see active weather as well.
This monsoon forecast comes from the Arizona Weatherman, a veteran meteorologist with over 25 years of experience, including work in aviation meteorology, government forecasting, and STEM education. His predictions are grounded in deep expertise and trusted by both professionals and the public.
This article has been carefully fact-checked by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and eliminate any misleading information. We are committed to maintaining the highest standards of integrity in our content.
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