Arizona Monsoon Takes a Breather, but Bigger Storms Are Coming

Arizona’s monsoon season is taking a short break after an early and welcome start leading into the holiday weekend. But don’t get too comfortable—bigger storms are expected to return by mid-July, according to local forecasters.

Hotter Days Ahead

As the monsoon pauses, temperatures will rise again. While the skies may stay mostly dry for a few days, very isolated thunderstorms are still likely across parts of southern Arizona and the eastern Mogollon Rim.

Areas like Sierra Vista and Patagonia could see thunderstorms today, with chances extending to Benson and possibly even Tucson. Expect gusty winds up to 50 mph and the potential for blowing dust. While conditions are not highly favorable for severe storms, wind-related hazards remain possible.

Tropics Take a Breather Too

It’s not just Arizona hitting pause. The East Pacific hurricane season also shows signs of slowing down after a historic start—already producing six named storms by June 30, double the average by this point in the season.
Forecasters cite a few reasons for the upcoming lull:

Unfavorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) through July 15
Incoming Saharan dust and dry air across the basin
Despite warm sea surface temperatures between 83 and 85 degrees, conditions won’t support development

This slowdown offers some breathing room—but it’s only temporary.

What’s Next for Arizona?

Don’t expect much action until after July 15, when widespread monsoon activity is likely to return. For now:

Expect very isolated storms through early next week
Localized gusts and brief showers in Cochise, Santa Cruz, Southern Apache, and Navajo Counties
Storm chances remain moderate through July 7

Bottom Line:

Arizona’s monsoon season isn’t done—it’s just on pause. Keep an eye on the forecast and prepare for a ramp-up in storm activity later this month.

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