The Arizona monsoon will quiet down over the next week before roaring back with force later this month, according to the Arizona Weatherman.
Storms Ease Before Brief Pause
On Sunday, August 17, thunderstorms will decrease across most of the state. However, southern Arizona—especially Santa Cruz, southern Pima, and southern Cochise counties—will still see strong storms. Expect winds topping 60 mph, small hail, and localized flooding of 1 to 2 inches.
From Monday through Saturday, August 18–23, high pressure aloft will build and suppress storm activity. While isolated thunderstorms may pop up, overall monsoon activity will be well below normal. Hotter temperatures will also return: Phoenix is forecast to reach 110–112°F, Tucson 104–106°F, Yuma 109–113°F, and Flagstaff 85–88°F.
Monsoon Rebounds in Late August
From Sunday through Thursday, August 24–28, the monsoon will surge back across Arizona. Thunderstorm coverage will expand statewide as an upper-level trough ushers in southwesterly flow, boosting tropical moisture and instability. Expect stronger storms and a more typical late-season monsoon pattern.
The Arizona Weatherman emphasized that monsoon season isn’t over—it’s just taking a short break. He noted no significant tropical development is expected in the East Pacific basin over the next several days.
About the Forecast
This outlook comes from the Arizona Weatherman, a meteorologist with more than 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology. His career includes service with the U.S. Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, along with training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT). Certified as a STEM teacher in Arizona, he is recognized for his reliable weather predictions.
This article has been carefully fact-checked by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and eliminate any misleading information. We are committed to maintaining the highest standards of integrity in our content.
Katie is a senior who has been on staff for three years. Her favorite type of stories to write is reviews and features. Katie’s favorite ice cream flavor is strawberry.
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