Arizona’s upcoming monsoon activity, initially expected to ramp up between July 30 and August 6, 2025, has taken a disappointing turn. Forecast models have scaled back rain and thunderstorm predictions, making it feel like the monsoon season was snatched away. While it’s a letdown, we have to come to terms with the drier outlook.
Last week, I anticipated a spike in Arizona’s rain chances for this period. But updated models now show a sharp drop in precipitation through August 6. That said, the state won’t be completely dry. Southeast Arizona and areas along the Mogollon Rim will still see some monsoon action.
From July 30 to 31, expect isolated thunderstorms in South Apache, Greenlee, Graham, Cochise, and Santa Cruz Counties. Severe weather risk will be lower due to moderate instability, though gusty winds up to 55 mph, small hail, localized flooding, and dust storms remain possible.
On Friday, August 1, storm chances shift to the Mogollon Rim, including Coconino, Navajo, Apache, and Gila Counties. Thunderstorms may also reach Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon.
After Friday, the monsoon activity across Arizona is expected to taper off. The southeast might still get a few isolated showers and storms, but overall, it’s not shaping up to be a typical monsoon week. Forecast models reflect a noticeable drop in rainfall through August 6.
Meanwhile, the East Pacific Tropical Basin is active, with a strong chance of Tropical Storm Gil developing after July 30, and possibly Tropical Storm Henriette in the following week. Unfortunately, these systems are unlikely to deliver any meaningful moisture to Arizona.
The silver lining? We’re only halfway through the monsoon season, and there’s still time for conditions to improve.
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Katie is a senior who has been on staff for three years. Her favorite type of stories to write is reviews and features. Katie’s favorite ice cream flavor is strawberry.
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