The U.S. is poised to experience negative net migration for the first time in five decades, driven by President Donald Trump’s aggressive deportation agenda. A new report by the American Enterprise Institute warns that more than 500,000 people may leave the country in 2025, reducing the labor force and slowing economic growth.
The study, authored by economists Tara Watson and Wendy Edelberg, projects that between 525,000 people will emigrate and only about 115,000 will enter the U.S., marking a likely net loss in migration. With foreign-born workers making up 19.2% of the U.S. workforce, this decline could cut GDP growth by 0.3% to 0.4%, translating to $70.5 to $94 billion in annual economic losses. The impact comes amid an already shrinking U.S.-born labor pool, as more workers retire and fewer new ones enter the market.
“Our workforce is disproportionately made up of immigrants relative to their share of the population,” Watson explained. “We really can’t sustain a high level of job growth with the U.S.-born population alone.”
Although the Biden-era immigration surge had temporarily boosted the economy—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting an $8.9 trillion nominal GDP gain between 2024 and 2034—recent months have seen a sharp reversal. Since January 2025, the foreign-born labor force has declined by 735,000 people, according to Federal Reserve data.
The Trump administration has intensified deportations, detaining more than 67,000 immigrants and deporting over 71,000 in fiscal year 2025. Many others have chosen to leave voluntarily, contributing to the net migration decline. The administration has also begun refusing to renew temporary work visas and student visas, further discouraging immigration.
Edelberg noted a spike in work permit applications early in 2025, suggesting that many immigrants rushed to secure legal employment before enforcement actions ramped up. That wave helped payrolls grow by 147,000 in June, but growth is expected to fall to just 30,000–40,000 per month by year’s end. “We’re not going to ride that wave forever,” she said.
The administration’s immigration crackdown—backed by a $45 billion funding boost for Homeland Security and $11 billion annually for ICE—has sparked fears across industries dependent on immigrant labor. Farm workers are reportedly staying home to avoid raids, and nursing homes are struggling to staff facilities as legal statuses are revoked and immigration pathways slow.
“We feel completely beat up right now,” said Deke Cateau, CEO of nursing home chain A.G. Rhodes, where immigrants make up a third of the workforce. “The pipeline is getting smaller and smaller.”
Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo, warned that deporting 3,000 undocumented immigrants daily for a year would shrink the labor force by 1 million, reducing labor participation by 0.4 percentage points. That would raise wages in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality—but also drive up wage inflation and reduce job growth.
“Deportations are a stagflationary impulse to the economy,” Sløk said, citing the mix of higher wages and slower employment gains.
The economic ripple effects are broad. Immigrants paid $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes in 2022, and Watson warned that fewer contributions will threaten the system’s sustainability. Meanwhile, local economies with high immigrant populations may see housing demand fall and business activity slow.
The White House dismissed the AEI report, calling it “baseless fear-mongering” and arguing that deportations will boost wages and opportunities for Americans. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force,” said spokesperson Abigail Jackson.
Edelberg disagreed. “The broad macroeconomic events are going to be pretty modest,” she said, “but how we engage with this policy—in the images and in our communities—is going to have a lasting impact.”
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